BCS Scenarios

As we approach the end of the college football regular season, there are many unknowns when it comes to the teams that will participate in the BCS bowl games. Probably the only sure thing we know is that Utah is in. As I currently see it, eight teams have a realistic shot of playing in the championship game. These teams are: Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Penn State, USC, Utah. Here's how each team can get there:

1. Alabama: beat Auburn, beat Florida in the SEC championship game
2. Florida: beat Florida St., beat Alabama in the SEC championship game
3. Oklahoma: beat Oklahoma St; pray for a Texas loss to Texas A&M or hope the voters keep them ahead of Texas
4. Texas: beat Texas A&M, Oklahoma beats Okla St, voters rank them ahead of Oklahoma; or Texas Tech loses to Baylor
5. Texas Tech: beat Baylor, Oklahoma loses to Okla. St
6. Penn State: Alabama loses to Auburn; Florida loses to Florida St or Alabama; Big 12 South champion loses to Missouri in the Big 12 championship game or TX, TX Tech, OU each lose to their final regular season opponents
7. USC: beat UCLA and Notre Dame and Oregon St. loses to Oregon see Penn State's scenario
8. Utah: at least six of the seven teams ranked ahead of them finish with two losses (this still might not be enough)

Teams that definitely will not play in the national championship game
1. The loser of the SEC championship game
2. A Big 12 South champion that loses to Missouri

The most likely matchup in the title game will feature the SEC champion and the Big 12 South Champion (assuming they beat Missouri)
The SEC and the Big 12 are without a doubt the two best conferences in college football.

Chaos will ensue if both Florida and Alabama lose before the SEC championship game or if the Big 12 South contenders (TX, Tech, OU) all lose their final regular season games. The latter scenario is not likely to happen.